March Student of the Market

Aaron Ammerman |

So Goes a Positive January and Negative February...?

In January 2023, the markets returned 6.3% and in February 2023, the average return was -2.4%.  Since 1926, the next 10 months following January and February were as follows:

- Positive January and February: 11.1%

- Negative January and February: 10.1%

- Positive January and Negative February: 13.2%

- Negative January and Positive February: 5.9%

How Long have Inflation Cycles Lasted?

The average time from inflation's peak to low inflation is 24.2 months since 1926.  The average time it takes to get inflation below 3% is 17.6 months since 1926.  

International Stocks when Long-Term U.S. Stock Returns are Low

For a rolling 10-year period from 1973 to February 2023:

When U.S. returns are less than 4%, International outperforms 100% of the time.  

When U.S. returns are less than 6%, International outperforms 96% of the time.  

Taking into account all U.S. returns, U.S. stocks outperform 59% of the time.  


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