BlackRock December Student of the Market Report

Aaron Ammerman |

Check out the BlackRock Student of the Market report below. This report covers:

  • Is the bounce in stocks durable?  Stocks bounced big in October and November. October-November 2022 was the 13th best 2-month period for stocks since 1950. 
  • Stock market volatility is picking up in 2022.  As of November 30th, there had been 23 positive 2% days and 22 negative 2% days in 2022.
  • Historical bull and bear markets.  Bear markets tend to be brief and painful.
  • Growth vs. value in 2022.  2022 is the largest value outperformance since 2001.
  • Bonds are on pace to lose money two years in a row.  Bonds have only lost money 2 years in a row twice since 1926 and bonds have not lost money 3 years in a row. The bond index performance in 2021 was -1.2%. The YTD bond index performance as of 11/30/22 was -12.6%.
  • U.S. bonds historically average 5% per year.  Since 1926, there has been 1 year with bond returns less than -10%, 10 years with bond returns 0 to -10%, 29 years with bond returns 0 to 3%, 28 years with bond returns 3 to 7%, 16 years with bond returns 7-10%, and 12 years with bond returns over 10%. 
  • Going against the crowd in municipal bonds.
  • Stocks have entered an optimal seasonal return period.  Stocks like "turkey to tax" or November 1 to April 30 and bonds like "mommies to mummies" or May 1 to October 31.