BlackRock December Student of the Market Report
Check out the BlackRock Student of the Market report below. This report covers:
- Is the bounce in stocks durable? Stocks bounced big in October and November. October-November 2022 was the 13th best 2-month period for stocks since 1950.
- Stock market volatility is picking up in 2022. As of November 30th, there had been 23 positive 2% days and 22 negative 2% days in 2022.
- Historical bull and bear markets. Bear markets tend to be brief and painful.
- Growth vs. value in 2022. 2022 is the largest value outperformance since 2001.
- Bonds are on pace to lose money two years in a row. Bonds have only lost money 2 years in a row twice since 1926 and bonds have not lost money 3 years in a row. The bond index performance in 2021 was -1.2%. The YTD bond index performance as of 11/30/22 was -12.6%.
- U.S. bonds historically average 5% per year. Since 1926, there has been 1 year with bond returns less than -10%, 10 years with bond returns 0 to -10%, 29 years with bond returns 0 to 3%, 28 years with bond returns 3 to 7%, 16 years with bond returns 7-10%, and 12 years with bond returns over 10%.
- Going against the crowd in municipal bonds.
- Stocks have entered an optimal seasonal return period. Stocks like "turkey to tax" or November 1 to April 30 and bonds like "mommies to mummies" or May 1 to October 31.
